We presented these results at the SAEM annual meeting, May 2003.
Received 24 August 2006; accepted 29 September 2006.
Abstract
Objective
Our objective was to characterize emergency department (ED) visits for gastroenteritis by season and age and develop a predictive model.
Methods
We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients seen in 19 EDs from 1988 to 2002. We examined differences in the annual peaks of younger (<60 months) and older (>60 months) age groups and developed a time series regression model.
Results
Of the 5182019 total visits, 88504 were for gastroenteritis. On average, the percentage of gastroenteritis on the peak days was higher in the younger (26%) than older group (4%), and the peaks for the younger group occurred 36 days after those for the older group.
Conclusion
Emergency department visits for gastroenteritis vary greatly by season and age. Our time series predictive model was a good fit to actual incidence patterns. These variations should be accounted for in designing a system to detect bioterrorism and for surveillance of naturally occurring epidemics.
aUMDNJ Robert Wood Johnson Medical School/School of Public Health, Piscataway, NJ 08854, USA
bDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Morristown Memorial Hospital, Morristown, NJ 07960, USA
cEmergency Medical Associates of New Jersey Research Foundation, Livingston, NJ 07039, USA
Corresponding author. Department of Emergency Medicine, Morristown Memorial Hospital, Morristown, NJ 07962, USA. Tel.: +1 973 971 8919; fax: +1 973 335 4255.
☆ Emergency Medicine Associates Research Foundation provided us with the data and computer support.
ABSTRACT